Styrene-butadiene rubber: Analysis of price fluctuation and main driving factors of Styrene-butadiene rubber in March

【Introduction】 In March, the price of styrene butadiene rubber rose after the correction, the price rise is mainly caused by the cost transmission of raw material butadiene price, and the main factor to restrain the price rise is due to transportation problems, the circulation of styrene butadiene rubber source is limited, the accumulation of social inventory is improved, and the price in the middle and late period began to price correction.
In March, after the price of styrene butadiene rubber rose, the fluctuation range of the highest and lowest prices in one month was 725 yuan/ton

                             FIG. 1 Comparison of price trend of SBR in China

In March, the price of 1502 in The North China market rose after a correction. As of March 31, the price of 1502 in the North China market closed at 12550 yuan/ton, up 3.29% from the end of last month. Monthly average prices rose 0.31% month-on-month and fell nearly 14% year-on-year. Reasons for price increase: cost transmission, raw material butadiene prices, styrene butadiene rubber prices; Reasons for price correction: limited transportation, continuous exhaustion of styrene butadiene rubber supply end, increased inventory pressure, price correction; But on the back of costs, prices are falling against each other; Reasons for year-on-year price decline: last year, the domestic leading styrene-butadiene rubber device unexpectedly stopped, resulting in a sharp drop in production, market prices rose; This is in stark contrast to march, when the supply of styrene butadiene rubber continued to be abundant.
Analysis on the fluctuation characteristics and seasonal characteristics of the average price of styrene butadiene rubber market in March

                       FIG. 2 Historical price fluctuation of styrene butadiene rubber

According to the average price fluctuation of the styrene butadiene rubber market monitored by Zhuochuang Information in 2010, the market price of butadiene from January to March in 2022 was in a relatively low operation. In March, the price of styrene butadiene rubber was mainly affected by abundant supply and transportation resistance, and the upward pressure continued. In march of the north China market 1502 monthly price 12455 yuan/ton, up 0.31% month-on-month and its history month prices higher than the lowest price level, below the historical average of prices, and the usual market in March, this year the price is the main reason for the low styrene butadiene rubber industry capacity utilization at new highs of 2013 years, In March, 82% of the construction load was started. The growth rate of demand was far lower than that of supply, and the present situation of oversupply was prominent.

                   FIG. 3 Seasonal fluctuation table of historical price of SBR

According to the seasonal fluctuation characteristics of the historical price of styrene butadiene rubber market monitored by Zhuochuang Information in 2010, generally speaking, the market price in February, April, the third quarter and December will show an upward trend, and the increase in September is greater than that in other months. Under normal circumstances, downstream tire enterprises will usher in the traditional golden nine silver ten production and sales season, the volume of demand for styrene butadiene rubber will rise; But in recent years, the supply of styrene-butadiene rubber is stable, and the proportion of styrene-butadiene rubber directly supplied tire enterprises increases, and the demand for styrene-butadiene rubber raw material changes not obviously according to the traditional law of light and peak season of the tire industry. In March, the price of styrene butadiene rubber rose in March after the correction, its price operation in March in line with the seasonal fluctuations of historical prices, but the decline relative to the historical decline is small, mainly supported by the cost, its price correction is limited. The following is a detailed analysis of the driving factors affecting price fluctuations.

                                Analysis of main driving factors of SBR price in March

Price driver	Impact strength	Key concerns
Requirement	★★★★	Raw material butadiene prices continued to rise, up 31% in the first ten days of the month, cost driven styrene butadiene rubber prices.
Supply	★★★	Domestic tire enterprises start load, coupled with alternative demand support, styrene butadiene rubber market spot trading stability.
Cost	★★★	The starting load of styrene butadiene rubber is above 80%, which is at a historical high level. Transportation within a month is restricted, and social inventory increases.
market mentality	★★	Styrene-butadiene rubber market prices stagflation, late in the month back.

The fluctuation of domestic SBR market price in March was mainly influenced by the driving factors in Table 1. First of all, the cost of styrene butadiene rubber, the main raw materials are butadiene, styrene, as of March 31, butadiene rose 31% in the same month in February, styrene rose 5.6% in the same month in February, styrene butadiene rubber prices rose 3.29% in the same month in February, the price of raw materials rose significantly higher than the price of styrene butadiene rubber; After calculation, the cost of styrene butadiene rubber is higher than the price of styrene butadiene rubber 1113 yuan/ton, the high cost of the current situation increased the bullish sentiment of styrene butadiene rubber market.
In terms of demand, tire enterprises resumed production in March. The starting load of semi-steel tire was 71.5%, up 39.68% from the previous month. The starting load of all-steel tire was 58.55%, up 34.21% from the previous month. From the price difference between styrene-butadiene rubber and natural rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber discount natural rubber 200-500 yuan/ton range, downstream will increase the application of styrene-butadiene rubber, as of March 31, styrene-butadiene rubber discount natural rubber 450 yuan/ton, alternative demand for styrene-butadiene rubber prices also form strong support. By comprehensive calculation, the actual consumption of styrene butadiene rubber in March was 98,800 tons, up 40.34% month-on-month, and the overall demand volume of styrene butadiene rubber in March increased. It can be said that the market price of styrene butadiene rubber in early March is driven by the cost side and the demand side, and the price rises.
On the supply side, the output of styrene butadiene rubber in March was 102,300 tons, up 1.29% from the previous month. The supply increase was mainly due to the full production of most devices, and part of the device load declined slightly at the end of the month, but did not cover the amount of improvement. The situation of abundant supply of domestic goods restrained the rising trend of styrene butadiene rubber prices. In late March, with the amplification of transportation resistance, the social inventory of styrene butadiene rubber was accumulated. By March 31, the sample inventory of styrene butadiene rubber monitored by Zhuochuang Information increased by 12% month-on-month, and the highest weekly increase was above 10%. Abundant supply superimposed on the increase of social inventory, market traders' mentality has been affected, the market price of styrene butadiene rubber began to show a trend of correction in the latter half of the year. Under the combined action of the above factors, the market price of styrene butadiene rubber in March showed a trend of correction after rising, and under the cost pressure, some styrene butadiene rubber manufacturers have negative expectations, and the tire output in April is expected to rise, the supply and demand fundamentals of styrene butadiene rubber will change to some extent. Therefore, the market price trend in April still needs to focus on the supply and demand of styrene butadiene rubber to drive the price.